Predicting the 2017 UK general election: How much could Brexit impact the results?

One of the biggest issues this general election surrounds Brexit . How could Brexit impact the gains and losses of seats in June? Can we come up with a fairly good prediction?

I will explicitly give assumptions that I make, some of which might seem an over-simplification. This is to:

  1. Simplify the model so we can understand how it works
  2. Try to isolate the importance of Brexit

Assumptions

Here’s what we assume:

  1. Voter turnout in each constituency will be the same as in 2015.
  2. A proportion, B, of the electorate in each constituency will not change their vote from 2015
  3. The remaining 1-B portion will vote purely for a party which holds their Brexit views
  4. Any seats that aren’t Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or UKIP will remain as they were in 2015 (see below)

So in each constituency everything stays the same apart from a bunch of people who vote for their Brexit views. Note that this might mean they end up voting for the party they did in 2015; that’s fine. But the reasons they are voting for that party have changed.

Assumption 3: How does someone vote if they are voting on their Brexit views?

The conservatives are leading the charge for a fairly hard Brexit. So someone voting purely on their “Leave” opinion would probably vote Conservative. UKIP are obviously of this mindset but the recent elections have seen their support plummet now we’re actually leaving. However it’s not hard a stretch to see some hardcore leavists vote for UKIP. So suppose a proportion L of leavers who vote based on their Brexit views vote Conservative and the remaining 1-L proportion vote UKIP. We might want to bear in mind that L will probably be large, e.g 6:1 conservative: UKIP.

The Liberal Democrats are positioning themselves as the party for remainers. So if we play along with the model, almost everyone who is voting on their strong remain views will vote for Liberal Democrats. Maybe some people would vote Labour; it’s hard to tell exactly where they stand but perception is they’d probably be softer than Conservatives. So similar to leavers, a proportion R of remainers who vote based on their remain view vote Liberal Democrats and the remaining 1-R vote Labour. We will want to note that R will be large.

Assumption 4: The lazy escape assumption

To make things a little easier, the seats for the parties not mentioned in assumption 3 are predicted to stay as they are. This is to prevent weird stuff like half of Scotland getting Liberal Democrat MPs because they voted predominantly remain or something like that. So we kind of assume that Scotland, some of Wales and Northern Ireland seats are Brexit immune (and of course, the Greens keep their Brighton seat). Note that model predictions might underestimate Conservative seats as the opinion is SNP will be losing seats to them.

The parameters B, L, R

I deliberately didn’t state a number for most of the proportions to let us adjust them suitably.

B, which we dub the “Brexit importance” parameter is what the whole model is working around. It represents the probability that a voter is so passionate about their Brexit view that they vote based entirely on that. L and R are the party splits for leavers and remainers and we know they are both certainly greater than 1/2 based on the parties involved.

We will play around with these to see what tweaking them does to the model.

Obtaining the data

One thing I like about elections is that the data is public domain and also doesn’t form a very big dataset so it’s easy to work with.

2015 election results can be downloaded as a csv from the Electoral Committee website. We ideally want to join on constituency level remain/ leave data onto this from the EU referendum, but the counting for the referendum was done a little differently to a general election.

I sourced a constituency EU referendum data from https://secondreading.uk/brexit/brexit-votes-by-constituency where they combine estimates of constituency remain/ leave proportions produced by Dr Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia  with actual confirmed proportions from BBC data.

election

Producing the model

I chucked all this stuff into R, cleaned it up a bit and made new variables. The “model” isn’t really a model as such; it’s all just about multiplying the existing votes by different proportions and adding on new proportions to each party based on our assumptions and the values of the parameters we feed in. To get a sense of what they do, here is an example constituency. Grey vote as they did in 2015, Blue: Conservative, Purple: UKIP, Yellow: Lib Dems, Red: Labour

voterCounts

The results

To see the effects of the importance of Brexit parameter B, we can fix L (Conservative:UKIP proportion) and R (Lib Dems: Labor proportion) and report the outcome of slowly increasing B.

If Conservative and Lib Dems are the main pro/ anti Brexit parties….

L09R09L06R09

One can fix R and L (the Brexit voters’ party proportions) and vary B to see the effects of how important Brexit is.

  1. Conservative/ Labour: Clearly conservative make gains if we assume Labour isn’t really voted for by anyone with strong views on Brexit (for leave OR remain).
  2. Lib Dems: Brexit has to be pretty important (on over half of people’s minds) for Lib Dems to really pick up some momentum under these parameters, although they do pick up a few seats even if Brexit is just a little bit important
  3. UKIP: You can see that when we’ve changed the Con:UKIP ratio so that many more leavers sway with UKIP, UKIP still don’t make gains and Conservative remain strong.

How much of a proportion of leave “pure Brexit views” voters would UKIP need to actually do anything?

B03UKIPLD08B06UKIPLD08.png

Here instead we fix everything at (fairly) neutral values and vary 1-L, or the UKIP:Con leave “Brexit voters” ratio. For lowish Brexit importance conservative losses become labour gains with UKIP not able to gain momentum.

Brexit importance at 0.6 returns some pretty crazy results; this probably tells us that Brexit importance this high is unrealistic in this model.

How much a proportion of remain “pure Brexit views” voters would Lib Dems need to actually do anything?

We do similar to before but vary R .A lot that’s for sure. Mostly what increasing the proportion R does is allow Conservative to take from Labour, with Lib Dems making gains only if they get full support of remainers.

B03LDCON08.pngB06LDCON08.png

What sort of realistic prediction does this model give?

It’s difficult to know exactly what model parameters should be to return a realistic prediction for us. The majority will be up to gues work and estimates.

I will however provide predictions for the model at parameters which “feel about right”. B = 0.35, L = 0.7, R = 0.8 produces the table found at the bottom of this post at a constituency level and the overall seats:

C    L    LD   UKIP   SNP  Green  DUP   UUP  SDLP  PC   SF  Speaker
398  155  18   0      56   1      9     2    3     3    4   1

From general opinion, it is worth reducing SNP by 10 and adding 10 to the conservatives in the prediction given.

It’s interesting to note that in my model, the liberal democrats do better than predicted elsewhere if they can drive home that 0.8 proportion of the remain voters. Potential (perhaps unusual) targets for the Lib Dems identified by the model could be:

Bath, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Bristol West, Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green, Kingston & Surbiton, Lewes, Twickenham and Cardiff Central.

A more Labour friendly prediction with B = 0.3, C = 0.8, L=0.2 yields

C L LD UKIP SNP Green DUP UUP SDLP PC SF Speaker
351 217 3 0 46 1 9 2 3 3 4 1

EDIT: Recent opinion polls seem to imply remainers are quite likely to vote labour. Therefore I provide vote counts and my prediction as these parameters above.

Constituency predictions:

Constituency_Name C_p L_p LD_p Seat Seat_p
Aldershot 22776 10594 4020 C C
Aldridge-Brownhills 20785 9221 1690 C C
Altrincham & Sale West 23403 16896 4829 C C
Amber Valley 21243 14933 1902 C C
Arundel & South Downs 30901 11111 4514 C C
Ashfield 15443 16950 5755 L L
Ashford 29283 12957 3791 C C
Ashton Under Lyne 11800 17123 1551 L L
Aylesbury 26587 12244 5712 C C
Banbury 28471 15447 4107 C C
Barking 11118 21458 1413 L L
Barnsley Central 9666 16958 1212 L L
Barnsley East 10214 17347 1499 L L
Barrow & Furness 18147 17298 1936 L C
Basildon & Billericay 22777 10546 1999 C C
Basingstoke 24820 16155 4208 C C
Bassetlaw 18667 20522 1868 L L
Bath 16028 11991 11710 C C
Batley & Spen 18324 20064 2873 L L
Battersea 21532 22580 3925 C L
Beaconsfield 29824 10721 4366 C C
Beckenham 25235 12684 3876 C C
Bedford 19467 18269 2695 C C
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 7549 24459 14599 L L
Berwick-Upon-Tweed 16999 8532 9257 C C
Bethnal Green & Bow 9433 31121 3789 L L
Beverley & Holderness 25093 14356 3316 C C
Bexhill & Battle 28814 11066 4341 C C
Bexleyheath & Crayford 21246 11667 1828 C C
Birkenhead 8928 23064 2111 L L
Birmingham Edgbaston 15731 18148 2125 L L
Birmingham Erdington 12696 14140 1441 L L
Birmingham Hall Green 9557 27079 5665 L L
Birmingham Hodge Hill 8346 24408 3026 L L
Birmingham Ladywood 6255 24026 2340 L L
Birmingham Northfield 16911 16265 1917 L C
Birmingham Perry Barr 11239 21379 2598 L L
Birmingham Selly Oak 14295 20880 3204 L L
Birmingham Yardley 9910 15893 8349 L L
Bishop Auckland 14690 15137 2136 L L
Blackburn 14075 22219 1890 L L
Blackley & Broughton 8478 20422 1695 L L
Blackpool North & Cleveleys 18567 13046 1445 C C
Blackpool South 12833 11933 1132 L C
Blaydon 11560 20173 5025 L L
Blyth Valley 11369 16172 2511 L L
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton 24191 8601 3979 C C
Bolsover 14955 18918 1809 L L
Bolton North East 15898 17353 1958 L L
Bolton South East 12003 17965 1644 L L
Bolton West 20227 18388 2645 C C
Bootle 8428 28368 1893 L L
Boston & Skegness 20947 7558 1350 C C
Bosworth 23875 11589 9626 C C
Bournemouth East 21082 10114 3851 C C
Bournemouth West 19899 9381 3349 C C
Bracknell 27508 12225 4277 C C
Bradford East 8730 17951 9667 L L
Bradford South 12650 14717 1587 L L
Bradford West 7849 18014 1828 L L
Braintree 26303 11124 2895 C C
Brent Central 11485 26818 4347 L L
Brent North 17643 26952 3601 L L
Brentford & Isleworth 23203 25370 3564 L L
Brentwood & Ongar 28932 9398 4417 C C
Bridgwater & Somerset West 25640 11652 5970 C C
Brigg & Goole 22908 11733 1408 C C
Brighton Kemptown 17607 18548 2488 C L
Brighton Pavilion 12070 20149 3496 Green Green
Bristol East 15082 18575 3350 L L
Bristol North West 20752 20055 4144 C C
Bristol South 14480 19966 4669 L L
Bristol West 10003 28193 11513 L L
Broadland 25653 12832 5087 C C
Bromley & Chislehurst 21609 12151 3311 C C
Bromsgrove 26635 13719 3230 C C
Broxbourne 25327 9704 1970 C C
Broxtowe 23628 20009 3007 C C
Buckingham 2227 2350 587 Speaker Speaker
Burnley 10116 13650 8991 L L
Burton 24658 13596 1901 C C
Bury North 19103 18044 1909 C C
Bury South 17601 20024 2466 L L
Bury St Edmunds 29923 13948 4153 C C
Calder Valley 23108 19204 3355 C C
Camberwell & Peckham 8346 31136 3882 L L
Camborne & Redruth 19166 12556 5116 C C
Cambridge 8928 22186 14916 L L
Cannock Chase 22351 14641 1768 C C
Canterbury 21842 16176 6106 C C
Carlisle 19375 15295 1767 C C
Carshalton & Wallington 16968 9974 12864 LD C
Castle Point 24108 7376 1305 C C
Devon Central 26550 11228 6234 C C
Suffolk Central & Ipswich North 28274 13011 3792 C C
Charnwood 27112 13199 3819 C C
Chatham & Aylesford 21783 10733 1857 C C
Cheadle 21388 13285 13308 C C
Chelmsford 25860 12946 6052 C C
Chelsea & Fulham 20545 13343 3172 C C
Cheltenham 22842 10073 14627 C C
Chesham & Amersham 27489 11660 5073 C C
Chesterfield 12201 19696 5514 L L
Chichester 29999 11609 5094 C C
Chingford & Woodford Green 19837 14132 3005 C C
Chippenham 25405 9532 12979 C C
Chipping Barnet 23227 20170 3541 C C
Chorley 20157 21700 2291 L L
Christchurch 27363 8108 3480 C C
Cities Of London & Westminster 16161 13067 3299 C C
Chester, City of 20662 22516 3767 L L
Durham, City of 11881 21104 5103 L L
Clacton 18884 7523 1335 UKIP C
Cleethorpes 22085 12595 1792 C C
Colchester 19185 11190 10764 C C
Colne Valley 24389 20672 4076 C C
Congleton 25456 13066 4684 C C
Copeland 15622 15544 1912 L C
Corby 24920 20504 2364 C C
Coventry North East 12697 19459 2415 L L
Coventry North West 15955 17302 2345 L L
Coventry South 15741 18199 2562 L L
Crawley 22786 16257 2148 C C
Crewe & Nantwich 22777 18087 2189 C C
Croydon Central 22297 22103 2379 C C
Croydon North 13740 30941 3213 L L
Croydon South 28326 17484 4280 C C
Dagenham & Rainham 14509 15562 1272 L L
Darlington 15837 16463 2405 L L
Dartford 25992 13833 2144 C C
Daventry 28791 11841 2945 C C
Denton & Reddish 12033 17363 1570 L L
Derby North 17252 16420 3924 C C
Derby South 13806 17731 2133 L L
Derbyshire Dales 23174 13052 4155 C C
Devizes 25859 10160 4194 C C
Dewsbury 21994 21150 2713 L C
Don Valley 14394 16889 1829 L L
Doncaster Central 12187 17096 2003 L L
Doncaster North 11745 17086 1351 L L
Dover 22825 15254 2211 C C
Dudley North 14655 13704 980 L C
Dudley South 18163 11429 1257 C C
Dulwich & West Norwood 10850 28967 5920 L L
Ealing Central & Acton 18749 24005 4325 L L
Ealing North 15454 24950 2659 L L
Ealing Southall 10873 25686 2580 L L
Easington 8513 17493 1259 L L
Devon East 22815 8857 3836 C C
East Ham 10233 34974 2244 L L
Hampshire East 27974 10009 5601 C C
Surrey East 29797 10766 5164 C C
Worthing East & Shoreham 23547 12225 3704 C C
Yorkshire East 25180 11578 3160 C C
Eastbourne 21951 8266 15482 C C
Eastleigh 23588 11124 11546 C C
Eddisbury 22815 13229 4350 C C
Edmonton 11454 23130 1967 L L
Ellesmere Port & Neston 17676 20334 2272 L L
Elmet & Rothwell 27402 19695 3361 C C
Eltham 16356 17865 2163 L L
Enfield North 18764 19696 2135 L L
Enfield Southgate 20002 19339 2769 C C
Epping Forest 26140 10176 3564 C C
Epsom & Ewell 29809 13251 5262 C C
Erewash 21786 16192 2224 C C
Erith & Thamesmead 13677 19469 1836 L L
Esher & Walton 30721 12955 5734 C C
Exeter 18290 24686 3410 L L
Fareham 28645 11223 4810 C C
Faversham & Kent Mid 23763 9728 3264 C C
Feltham & Heston 16699 23316 2411 L L
Filton & Bradley Stoke 21697 15287 4039 C C
Finchley & Golders Green 21851 22536 3267 C L
Folkestone & Hythe 26532 10560 4668 C C
Forest Of Dean 23134 13526 3086 C C
Fylde 20164 9706 2130 C C
Gainsborough 25423 11792 3413 C C
Garston & Halewood 10313 29814 3127 L L
Gateshead 8956 19087 2810 L L
Gedling 18598 19260 2595 L L
Gillingham & Rainham 22937 12522 2215 C C
Gloucester 24069 16762 3267 C C
Gosport 25528 9188 3393 C C
Grantham & Stamford 27495 11215 3500 C C
Gravesham 24305 14746 1819 C C
Great Grimsby 11899 11662 1744 L C
Great Yarmouth 20965 12084 1478 C C
Greenwich & Woolwich 12673 24224 3640 L L
Guildford 26801 12059 7719 C C
Hackney North & Stoke Newington 7636 31353 4095 L L
Hackney South & Shoreditch 6973 30142 3704 L L
Halesowen & Rowley Regis 20230 14634 1518 C C
Halifax 18021 16501 2202 L C
Haltemprice & Howden 24920 12309 3427 C C
Halton 11814 24333 1900 L L
Hammersmith 15790 24710 3537 L L
Hampstead & Kilburn 19017 26659 4596 L L
Harborough 25951 11643 6429 C C
Harlow 22312 12665 1476 C C
Harrogate & Knaresborough 25756 10547 9937 C C
Harrow East 22827 20088 2263 C C
Harrow West 18800 21449 2629 L L
Hartlepool 11704 12444 1180 L L
Harwich & Essex North 24404 11208 3634 C C
Hastings & Rye 22752 17872 2467 C C
Havant 22930 9044 3060 C C
Hayes & Harlington 14223 23179 1719 L L
Hazel Grove 17932 10265 9170 C C
Hemel Hempstead 24909 13590 3009 C C
Hemsworth 13552 18406 1741 L L
Hendon 22024 21339 2490 C C
Henley 28314 12388 6230 C C
Hereford & Herefordshire South 24213 8748 4631 C C
Hertford & Stortford 28762 13918 4784 C C
Hertsmere 26898 13774 3421 C C
Hexham 20705 13243 3492 C C
Heywood & Middleton 13759 19025 2219 L L
High Peak 22146 18587 3179 C C
Hitchin & Harpenden 27330 16004 5139 C C
Holborn & St Pancras 11889 29916 4881 L L
Hornchurch & Upminster 28116 11801 2058 C C
Hornsey & Wood Green 7192 30951 15441 L L
Horsham 29373 11440 6375 C C
Houghton & Sunderland South 10740 18322 1421 L L
Hove 18794 23644 3349 L L
Huddersfield 12509 17442 2833 L L
Huntingdon 27907 13445 4630 C C
Hyndburn 16340 16178 1482 L C
Ilford North 20774 20584 2181 L C
Ilford South 14884 30255 2457 L L
Ipswich 21866 17718 2248 C C
Isle Of Wight 29989 12417 5196 C C
Islington North 8473 30002 5099 L L
Islington South & Finsbury 9871 23349 5271 L L
Jarrow 10254 18541 1745 L L
Keighley 21522 18601 2300 C C
Kenilworth & Southam 25331 11418 4986 C C
Kensington 15321 13241 2787 C C
Kettering 24016 12720 2144 C C
Kingston & Surbiton 22152 14255 16353 C C
Hull East 9969 15007 2176 L L
Hull North 8747 16421 3062 L L
Hull West & Hessle 9043 13393 2828 L L
Kingswood 22800 14926 2517 C C
Knowsley 8741 33529 2490 L L
Lancaster & Fleetwood 16543 17246 2197 L L
Leeds Central 10543 22973 2480 L L
Leeds East 11181 17954 1803 L L
Leeds North East 15406 23391 3597 L L
Leeds North West 9320 15812 12834 LD L
Leeds West 10424 17025 2073 L L
Leicester East 13773 25899 2195 L L
Leicester South 11399 25513 3059 L L
Leicester West 10438 15206 2047 L L
Leigh 13940 20928 1782 L L
Lewes 19141 9932 14294 C C
Lewisham East 10296 23280 3354 L L
Lewisham West & Penge 12074 24518 4465 L L
Lewisham Deptford 7666 28329 3830 L L
Leyton & Wanstead 9652 23003 3188 L L
Lichfield 26967 12368 3197 C C
Lincoln 20340 17708 2578 C C
Liverpool Riverside 5790 28549 3119 L L
Liverpool Walton 6210 26104 1691 L L
Liverpool Wavertree 6350 26111 3275 L L
Liverpool West Derby 6601 26240 1834 L L
Loughborough 24234 17889 3061 C C
Louth & Horncastle 26261 9979 2484 C C
Ludlow 25022 8908 5722 C C
Luton North 14864 19839 1976 L L
Luton South 14541 17463 3328 L L
Macclesfield 23976 14047 4232 C C
Maidenhead 30663 11502 5492 C C
Maidstone & The Weald 22541 8917 9732 C C
Makerfield 13113 20007 2087 L L
Maldon 27074 8207 2566 C C
Manchester Central 8220 26226 3003 L L
Manchester Gorton 6626 25926 2796 L L
Manchester Withington 6561 27616 10585 L L
Mansfield 17272 16299 1968 L C
Meon Valley 28674 9801 4951 C C
Meriden 27563 12187 3144 C C
Bedfordshire Mid 29978 13026 4578 C C
Derbyshire Mid 23453 13931 2963 C C
Dorset Mid & Poole North 23011 6632 10350 C C
Norfolk Mid 26635 11648 3544 C C
Sussex Mid 28885 12778 6420 C C
Worcestershire Mid 28222 10429 3911 C C
Middlesbrough 8958 15671 1519 L L
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 18973 17271 2053 L C
Milton Keynes North 25933 19161 4231 C C
Milton Keynes South 26766 19863 3269 C C
Mitcham & Morden 12138 25129 2455 L L
Mole Valley 29701 10131 7320 C C
Morecambe & Lunesdale 19885 14826 2192 C C
Morley & Outwood 19997 17458 2150 C C
New Forest East 26539 9013 4438 C C
New Forest West 26252 8613 3560 C C
Newark 27796 13438 3041 C C
Newbury 30972 10558 7816 C C
Newcastle Upon Tyne Central 8712 17857 2639 L L
Newcastle Upon Tyne East 8661 19064 4407 L L
Newcastle Upon Tyne North 13485 19064 4201 L L
Newcastle-Under-Lyme 17430 15493 2260 L C
Newton Abbot 22422 8375 9357 C C
Normanton,  Pontefract & Castleford 14326 21035 1777 L L
Cornwall North 22067 6364 11679 C C
Devon North 22782 7969 12128 C C
Dorset North 28386 8934 5754 C C
Durham North 11676 19273 2392 L L
Bedfordshire North East 31928 13049 4036 C C
Cambridgeshire North East 28596 9030 2569 C C
Derbyshire North East 19454 17979 2487 L C
Hampshire North East 30810 10661 5699 C C
Hertfordshire North East 26711 13009 4291 C C
Somerset North East 24200 14756 4288 C C
Herefordshire North 25414 8646 5240 C C
Norfolk North 17587 8480 14747 LD C
Shropshire North 26430 12498 3482 C C
Somerset North 28863 13269 7080 C C
Swindon North 25608 15492 2526 C C
Thanet North 23447 9832 2137 C C
Tyneside North 12897 22851 2581 L L
Warwickshire North 21712 15602 1598 C C
Cambridgeshire North West 30774 13941 4008 C C
Durham North West 12662 18677 3882 L L
Hampshire North West 29659 11163 5111 C C
Leicestershire North West 25362 14754 2638 C C
Norfolk North West 24828 11394 2133 C C
Wiltshire North 26291 9397 7011 C C
Northampton North 17429 13136 1910 C C
Northampton South 16854 12412 2109 C C
Norwich North 19315 14663 2438 C C
Norwich South 12644 20237 6353 L L
Nottingham East 8718 18239 2231 L L
Nottingham North 10584 16554 1356 L L
Nottingham South 14454 20042 2461 L L
Nuneaton 21642 15006 1532 C C
Old Bexley & Sidcup 24108 10200 2147 C C
Oldham East & Saddleworth 14465 16549 5072 L L
Oldham West & Royton 12078 20546 2113 L L
Orpington 26477 10347 3580 C C
Oxford East 10948 25908 5856 L L
Oxford West & Abingdon 23480 13468 13693 C C
Pendle 21421 14798 2023 C C
Penistone & Stocksbridge 15902 18083 3144 L L
Penrith & The Border 24177 9120 3797 C C
Peterborough 19835 15995 2307 C C
Plymouth Moor View 17983 13915 1740 C C
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport 18932 17554 2714 C C
Poole 22849 8980 5077 C C
Poplar & Limehouse 13224 28910 3501 L L
Portsmouth North 21832 11492 2961 C C
Portsmouth South 15284 10458 7723 C C
Preston 9248 16594 1737 L L
Pudsey 22455 19707 2926 C C
Putney 18859 16470 3772 C C
Rayleigh & Wickford 28639 8608 2114 C C
Reading East 20885 19172 4474 C C
Reading West 22238 16965 3014 C C
Redcar 11214 15716 6079 L L
Redditch 21015 13669 1961 C C
Reigate 26295 11038 5366 C C
Ribble Valley 24880 13256 3178 C C
Richmond (Yorks) 25832 10296 3752 C C
Richmond Park 28012 15361 10535 C C
Rochdale 11385 19091 4371 L L
Rochester & Strood 24195 11836 2015 C C
Rochford & Southend East 20495 11674 2055 C C
Romford 25724 10812 1895 C C
Romsey & Southampton North 23720 10318 7574 C C
Rossendale & Darwen 22848 16880 1775 C C
Rother Valley 15130 18075 2325 L L
Rotherham 9332 16714 1468 L L
Rugby 23661 14460 3161 C C
Ruislip,  Northwood & Pinner 27335 13417 3328 C C
Runnymede & Weybridge 26912 11467 3860 C C
Rushcliffe 25316 17937 3890 C C
Rutland & Melton 28283 11854 4581 C C
Saffron Walden 29880 11338 5901 C C
Salford & Eccles 11560 19616 2295 L L
Salisbury 25772 11396 5058 C C
Scarborough & Whitby 21429 14495 2612 C C
Scunthorpe 14490 13419 1200 L C
Sedgefield 13479 16606 1912 L L
Sefton Central 15468 24907 3074 L L
Selby & Ainsty 26711 15253 2677 C C
Sevenoaks 26451 10063 4143 C C
Sheffield Central 6638 24330 4823 L L
Sheffield South East 11636 18316 2385 L L
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 8900 19514 2173 L L
Sheffield Hallam 10016 22359 17664 LD L
Sheffield Heeley 10517 18429 4382 L L
Sherwood 23729 17132 1866 C C
Shipley 23953 16686 2797 C C
Shrewsbury & Atcham 24112 16635 4510 C C
Sittingbourne & Sheppey 24847 10806 2102 C C
Skipton & Ripon 28117 12790 4377 C C
Sleaford & North Hykeham 33033 12903 3805 C C
Slough 17527 21712 2221 L L
Solihull 25872 10109 11368 C C
Somerton & Frome 29703 10148 9948 C C
Basildon South & Thurrock East 21697 10935 1671 C C
Cambridgeshire South 27695 16693 8830 C C
Derbyshire South 24898 14346 2528 C C
Dorset South 23482 12899 3197 C C
Cambridgeshire South East 26616 14165 10369 C C
Cornwall South East 24342 8598 7293 C C
South Holland & The Deepings 28917 7689 1877 C C
Leicestershire South 27624 13720 4142 C C
Norfolk South 28702 14054 4958 C C
Northamptonshire South 33318 14046 4257 C C
South Ribble 24164 18280 2974 C C
South Shields 9402 16185 1240 L L
Staffordshire South 28400 10512 2047 C C
Suffolk South 26006 12694 4254 C C
Swindon South 22041 17619 2703 C C
Thanet South 20377 12694 1771 C C
Bedfordshire South West 26965 12375 3126 C C
Devon South West 26626 11286 3990 C C
Hertfordshire South West 29170 13878 5944 C C
Norfolk South West 25828 10113 2566 C C
Surrey South West 29002 11195 4361 C C
Wiltshire South West 26188 10107 5148 C C
Southampton Itchen 19459 15712 2185 C C
Southampton Test 15108 17642 2742 L L
Southend West 21383 10489 4085 C C
Southport 13339 11565 10965 LD C
Spelthorne 24106 11012 3372 C C
St Albans 22740 16959 9077 C C
St Austell & Newquay 21536 7834 9511 C C
St Helens North 12832 23094 2589 L L
St Helens South & Whiston 11913 25361 3190 L L
St Ives 19266 8304 12502 C C
Stafford 22987 14932 2151 C C
Staffordshire Moorlands 21839 11737 2136 C C
Stalybridge & Hyde 14071 16922 1881 L L
Stevenage 21407 16317 2327 C C
Stockport 11229 18880 3384 L L
Stockton North 13967 16738 1402 L L
Stockton South 24056 18606 2252 C C
Stoke-On-Trent Central 9382 10962 1509 L L
Stoke-On-Trent North 13956 13328 1428 L C
Stoke-On-Trent South 15532 13433 1593 L C
Stone 24490 11320 2901 C C
Stourbridge 21869 14164 2080 C C
Stratford-On-Avon 27090 10705 5835 C C
Streatham 11219 27977 5505 L L
Stretford & Urmston 14407 22926 2379 L L
Stroud 26143 23902 3419 C C
Suffolk Coastal 27645 12904 4817 C C
Sunderland Central 12822 18665 1772 L L
Surrey Heath 29520 10467 5005 C C
Sutton & Cheam 20600 9669 13214 C C
Sutton Coldfield 25733 13834 3308 C C
Tamworth 23997 12461 1961 C C
Tatton 23568 11706 4167 C C
Taunton Deane 26493 9968 10207 C C
Telford 17807 13968 1452 C C
Tewkesbury 28266 11882 6875 C C
Cotswolds, The 28931 10767 9172 C C
Wrekin, The 22157 12838 2509 C C
Thirsk & Malton 26126 10948 4613 C C
Thornbury & Yate 20163 8082 14260 C C
Thurrock 19982 14821 1328 C C
Tiverton & Honiton 27756 10252 5305 C C
Tonbridge & Malling 29094 11430 4088 C C
Tooting 18947 27278 3873 L L
Torbay 20915 7224 12462 C C
Devon West & Torridge 27892 10039 6695 C C
Totnes 23572 9381 4564 C C
Tottenham 5899 27547 3101 L L
Truro & Falmouth 21381 11874 7677 C C
Tunbridge Wells 26594 11879 4730 C C
Twickenham 22901 14828 18953 C C
Tynemouth 18427 24750 2790 L L
Uxbridge & Ruislip South 21749 12911 2710 C C
Vauxhall 11689 26832 4515 L L
Wakefield 16669 15899 1985 L C
Wallasey 12075 23535 2010 L L
Walsall North 15188 12325 1150 L C
Walsall South 15801 17670 1436 L L
Walthamstow 7219 26720 2806 L L
Wansbeck 11066 17537 2697 L L
Wantage 28263 14037 7202 C C
Warley 10730 18874 1429 L L
Warrington North 15350 19711 2443 L L
Warrington South 25331 23230 4085 C C
Warwick & Leamington 21967 19496 3545 C C
Washington & Sunderland West 10403 17714 1540 L L
Watford 23955 16781 8745 C C
Waveney 23391 18395 1890 C C
Wealden 29946 10809 5249 C C
Weaver Vale 19793 19185 2374 C C
Wellingborough 26003 11372 2689 C C
Wells 25647 8970 14644 C C
Welwyn Hatfield 23981 14867 3617 C C
Wentworth & Dearne 11607 20392 1592 L L
West Bromwich East 12625 16087 1254 L L
West Bromwich West 11667 14199 1033 L L
Dorset West 26740 10583 10199 C C
West Ham 11649 31898 2652 L L
Lancashire West 17809 22487 2247 L L
Suffolk West 25453 10363 2810 C C
Worcestershire West 28066 11227 5210 C C
Westminster North 14679 19274 2600 L L
Westmorland & Lonsdale 16943 8033 19178 LD LD
Weston-Super-Mare 24746 12149 5198 C C
Wigan 13249 20507 1870 L L
Wimbledon 21070 17032 6342 C C
Winchester 26569 11233 11458 C C
Windsor 27750 11125 4632 C C
Wirral South 15570 19482 2373 L L
Wirral West 17396 18748 2383 L L
Witham 25860 9653 3130 C C
Witney 31038 14439 4618 C C
Woking 25897 12802 5965 C C
Wokingham 28301 13374 7221 C C
Wolverhampton North East 12647 13603 1313 L L
Wolverhampton South East 11118 15635 1223 L L
Wolverhampton South West 16841 16560 1691 L C
Worcester 22150 17324 2549 C C
Workington 13657 15042 2106 L L
Worsley & Eccles South 14782 17003 1765 L L
Worthing West 25124 10914 4470 C C
Wycombe 24375 14453 4767 C C
Wyre & Preston North 25040 14167 3274 C C
Wyre Forest 22075 10401 1793 C C
Wythenshawe & Sale East 12904 20328 2634 L L
Yeovil 25026 8399 14596 C C
York Central 13802 21096 4399 L L
York Outer 24344 16469 6169 C C
Belfast East 3193 3040 760 DUP DUP
Belfast North 3840 4848 1212 DUP DUP
Belfast South 3789 4270 1067 SDLP SDLP
Belfast West 2919 3655 913 SF SF
Antrim East 3203 3558 889 DUP DUP
Londonderry East 3641 4224 1056 DUP DUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone 5325 6723 1680 UUP UUP
Foyle 3928 4843 1210 SDLP SDLP
Lagan Valley 3810 4232 1058 DUP DUP
Ulster Mid 4089 5056 1264 SF SF
Newry & Armagh 5348 6566 1641 SF SF
Antrim North 3751 4411 1102 DUP DUP
Down North 2615 1894 473 DUP DUP
Antrim South 3583 4156 1039 UUP UUP
Down South 4579 5500 1375 SDLP SDLP
Strangford 4437 3687 921 DUP DUP
Upper Bann 4874 5976 1494 DUP DUP
Tyrone West 4052 4967 1241 SF SF
Aberdeen North 8216 13924 2921 SNP SNP
Aberdeen South 11516 16956 3542 SNP SNP
Airdrie & Shotts 6616 16927 2062 SNP SNP
Angus 14168 8280 2235 SNP SNP
Argyll & Bute 10323 11317 12025 SNP SNP
Ayr,  Carrick & Cumnock 12634 17102 2384 SNP SNP
Banff & Buchan 15119 6888 2901 SNP SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 19564 9374 9076 SNP SNP
Caithness,  Sutherland & Easter Ross 5684 6291 9428 SNP SNP
Ayrshire Central 11367 16366 2386 SNP SNP
Coatbridge,  Chryston & Bellshill 6957 19492 2248 SNP SNP
Cumbernauld,  Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 7216 17732 2609 SNP SNP
Dumfries & Galloway 18014 17205 2521 SNP SNP
Dumfriesshire,  Clydesdale & Tweeddale 20029 12411 2727 C C
Dundee East 9437 13814 2743 SNP SNP
Dundee West 7082 13686 2307 SNP SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West 10005 20465 3573 SNP SNP
Dunbartonshire East 6825 14380 16361 SNP SNP
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 10482 20966 2969 SNP SNP
East Lothian 13057 21936 3343 SNP SNP
Renfrewshire East 12222 23625 3277 SNP SNP
Edinburgh East 6384 18015 2966 SNP SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith 9592 23566 4559 SNP SNP
Edinburgh South 8648 22676 3568 L L
Edinburgh South West 10761 18757 3577 SNP SNP
Edinburgh West 8499 13876 15062 SNP SNP
Na H-Eileanan An Iar 2419 5197 820 SNP SNP
Falkirk 11208 18991 2957 SNP SNP
Glasgow Central 4340 15761 2094 SNP SNP
Glasgow East 6219 15297 1644 SNP SNP
Glasgow North 3930 14106 2429 SNP SNP
Glasgow North East 4889 14256 1542 SNP SNP
Glasgow North West 5872 16633 2624 SNP SNP
Glasgow South 6606 18507 2802 SNP SNP
Glasgow South West 5421 15189 1729 SNP SNP
Glenrothes 7887 16309 2153 SNP SNP
Gordon 10985 10146 15255 SNP SNP
Inverclyde 6967 16259 2472 SNP SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 8066 11063 14631 SNP SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 9850 19266 2505 SNP SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 8944 19763 2656 SNP SNP
Lanark & Hamilton East 10843 20371 2981 SNP SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East 11309 22002 3030 SNP SNP
Livingston 10201 18885 2802 SNP SNP
Midlothian 8432 17414 2592 SNP SNP
Moray 16621 9357 2458 SNP SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw 6866 18060 2244 SNP SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran 11045 18008 2492 SNP SNP
Fife North East 9274 9105 11593 SNP SNP
Ochil & Perthshire South 13842 19953 3146 SNP SNP
Orkney & Shetland 3614 4394 7399 LD LD
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 8665 19246 2658 SNP SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 6238 19762 2521 SNP SNP
Perth & Perthshire North 17607 10820 3374 SNP SNP
Ross,  Skye & Lochaber 6148 7088 11911 SNP SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West 8178 22826 2884 SNP SNP
Stirling 12464 17795 3095 SNP SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 16242 9852 10296 SNP SNP
Dunbartonshire West 7136 18753 2454 SNP SNP
Ynys Mon 9427 11704 1549 L L
Delyn 13503 14696 1982 L L
Alyn & Deeside 14963 15767 2260 L L
Wrexham 11717 11855 2046 L L
Llanelli 8939 15228 1541 L L
Gower 16189 16134 2348 C C
Swansea West 9121 15275 3424 L L
Swansea East 8609 15522 1738 L L
Aberavon 6922 13664 1696 L L
Cardiff Central 6776 17258 8945 L L
Cardiff North 19955 21119 3221 C L
Rhondda 6116 14116 1065 L L
Torfaen 11558 15339 1760 L L
Monmouth 22029 14831 3229 C C
Newport East 11728 13313 2403 L L
Newport West 14318 16193 2244 L L
Arfon 4678 9814 1534 PC PC
Aberconwy 12621 9332 1816 C C
Clwyd West 16216 11053 2031 C C
Vale Of Clwyd 14366 13194 1572 C C
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 7780 6143 1659 PC PC
Clwyd South 12525 12480 1780 L C
Montgomeryshire 15178 4895 7806 C C
Ceredigion 6960 7436 10616 LD LD
Preseli Pembrokeshire 16394 11896 1522 C C
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South 17699 12422 1754 C C
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr 10919 11050 1742 PC PC
Brecon & Radnorshire 16491 8775 9106 C C
Neath 8814 15470 1841 L L
Cynon Valley 6666 13264 1354 L L
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 6799 15534 1746 L L
Blaenau Gwent 7109 15753 1155 L L
Bridgend 13463 14876 2313 L L
Ogmore 8965 16453 1597 L L
Pontypridd 8716 15757 4650 L L
Caerphilly 9987 16820 1733 L L
Islwyn 8706 15594 1529 L L
Vale Of Glamorgan 22939 17547 2376 C C
Cardiff West 12402 18235 2891 L L
Cardiff South & Penarth 13764 20109 3155 L L

 Constituency predictions: Conservative Landslide Scenario

Constituency_Name, Seat_2015, Seat_Prediction
Aldershot , C , C
Aldridge-Brownhills , C , C
Altrincham & Sale West , C , C
Amber Valley , C , C
Arundel & South Downs , C , C
Ashfield , L , C
Ashford , C , C
Ashton Under Lyne , L , L
Aylesbury , C , C
Banbury , C , C
Barking , L , L
Barnsley Central , L , L
Barnsley East , L , L
Barrow & Furness , L , C
Basildon & Billericay , C , C
Basingstoke , C , C
Bassetlaw , L , C
Bath , C , LD
Batley & Spen , L , C
Battersea , C , C
Beaconsfield , C , C
Beckenham , C , C
Bedford , C , C
Bermondsey & Old Southwark , L , LD
Berwick-Upon-Tweed , C , C
Bethnal Green & Bow , L , L
Beverley & Holderness , C , C
Bexhill & Battle , C , C
Bexleyheath & Crayford , C , C
Birkenhead , L , L
Birmingham Edgbaston , L , C
Birmingham Erdington , L , C
Birmingham Hall Green , L , L
Birmingham Hodge Hill , L , L
Birmingham Ladywood , L , L
Birmingham Northfield , L , C
Birmingham Perry Barr , L , L
Birmingham Selly Oak , L , L
Birmingham Yardley , L , L
Bishop Auckland , L , C
Blackburn , L , L
Blackley & Broughton , L , L
Blackpool North & Cleveleys , C , C
Blackpool South , L , C
Blaydon , L , L
Blyth Valley , L , L
Bognor Regis & Littlehampton , C , C
Bolsover , L , L
Bolton North East , L , C
Bolton South East , L , L
Bolton West , C , C
Bootle , L , L
Boston & Skegness , C , C
Bosworth , C , C
Bournemouth East , C , C
Bournemouth West , C , C
Bracknell , C , C
Bradford East , L , L
Bradford South , L , C
Bradford West , L , L
Braintree , C , C
Brent Central , L , L
Brent North , L , L
Brentford & Isleworth , L , C
Brentwood & Ongar , C , C
Bridgwater & Somerset West , C , C
Brigg & Goole , C , C
Brighton Kemptown , C , C
Brighton Pavilion , Green , Green
Bristol East , L , C
Bristol North West , C , C
Bristol South , L , L
Bristol West , L , LD
Broadland , C , C
Bromley & Chislehurst , C , C
Bromsgrove , C , C
Broxbourne , C , C
Broxtowe , C , C
Buckingham , Speaker , Speaker
Burnley , L , LD
Burton , C , C
Bury North , C , C
Bury South , L , C
Bury St Edmunds , C , C
Calder Valley , C , C
Camberwell & Peckham , L , L
Camborne & Redruth , C , C
Cambridge , L , LD
Cannock Chase , C , C
Canterbury , C , C
Carlisle , C , C
Carshalton & Wallington , LD , LD
Castle Point , C , C
Devon Central , C , C
Suffolk Central & Ipswich North , C , C
Charnwood , C , C
Chatham & Aylesford , C , C
Cheadle , C , C
Chelmsford , C , C
Chelsea & Fulham , C , C
Cheltenham , C , C
Chesham & Amersham , C , C
Chesterfield , L , L
Chichester , C , C
Chingford & Woodford Green , C , C
Chippenham , C , C
Chipping Barnet , C , C
Chorley , L , C
Christchurch , C , C
Cities Of London & Westminster , C , C
Chester, City Of , L , C
Durham, City Of , L , L
Clacton , UKIP , C
Cleethorpes , C , C
Colchester , C , C
Colne Valley , C , C
Congleton , C , C
Copeland , L , C
Corby , C , C
Coventry North East , L , L
Coventry North West , L , C
Coventry South , L , C
Crawley , C , C
Crewe & Nantwich , C , C
Croydon Central , C , C
Croydon North , L , L
Croydon South , C , C
Dagenham & Rainham , L , C
Darlington , L , C
Dartford , C , C
Daventry , C , C
Denton & Reddish , L , L
Derby North , C , C
Derby South , L , L
Derbyshire Dales , C , C
Devizes , C , C
Dewsbury , L , C
Don Valley , L , C
Doncaster Central , L , L
Doncaster North , L , L
Dover , C , C
Dudley North , L , C
Dudley South , C , C
Dulwich & West Norwood , L , L
Ealing Central & Acton , L , C
Ealing North , L , L
Ealing Southall , L , L
Easington , L , L
Devon East , C , C
East Ham , L , L
Hampshire East , C , C
Surrey East , C , C
Worthing East & Shoreham , C , C
Yorkshire East , C , C
Eastbourne , C , C
Eastleigh , C , C
Eddisbury , C , C
Edmonton , L , L
Ellesmere Port & Neston , L , C
Elmet & Rothwell , C , C
Eltham , L , C
Enfield North , L , C
Enfield Southgate , C , C
Epping Forest , C , C
Epsom & Ewell , C , C
Erewash , C , C
Erith & Thamesmead , L , L
Esher & Walton , C , C
Exeter , L , L
Fareham , C , C
Faversham & Kent Mid , C , C
Feltham & Heston , L , L
Filton & Bradley Stoke , C , C
Finchley & Golders Green , C , C
Folkestone & Hythe , C , C
Forest Of Dean , C , C
Fylde , C , C
Gainsborough , C , C
Garston & Halewood , L , L
Gateshead , L , L
Gedling , L , C
Gillingham & Rainham , C , C
Gloucester , C , C
Gosport , C , C
Grantham & Stamford , C , C
Gravesham , C , C
Great Grimsby , L , C
Great Yarmouth , C , C
Greenwich & Woolwich , L , L
Guildford , C , C
Hackney North & Stoke Newington , L , L
Hackney South & Shoreditch , L , L
Halesowen & Rowley Regis , C , C
Halifax , L , C
Haltemprice & Howden , C , C
Halton , L , L
Hammersmith , L , L
Hampstead & Kilburn , L , L
Harborough , C , C
Harlow , C , C
Harrogate & Knaresborough , C , C
Harrow East , C , C
Harrow West , L , C
Hartlepool , L , C
Harwich & Essex North , C , C
Hastings & Rye , C , C
Havant , C , C
Hayes & Harlington , L , L
Hazel Grove , C , C
Hemel Hempstead , C , C
Hemsworth , L , L
Hendon , C , C
Henley , C , C
Hereford & Herefordshire South , C , C
Hertford & Stortford , C , C
Hertsmere , C , C
Hexham , C , C
Heywood & Middleton , L , L
High Peak , C , C
Hitchin & Harpenden , C , C
Holborn & St Pancras , L , L
Hornchurch & Upminster , C , C
Hornsey & Wood Green , L , LD
Horsham , C , C
Houghton & Sunderland South , L , L
Hove , L , C
Huddersfield , L , L
Huntingdon , C , C
Hyndburn , L , C
Ilford North , L , C
Ilford South , L , L
Ipswich , C , C
Isle Of Wight , C , C
Islington North , L , L
Islington South & Finsbury , L , L
Jarrow , L , L
Keighley , C , C
Kenilworth & Southam , C , C
Kensington , C , C
Kettering , C , C
Kingston & Surbiton , C , LD
Hull East , L , L
Hull North , L , L
Hull West & Hessle , L , L
Kingswood , C , C
Knowsley , L , L
Lancaster & Fleetwood , L , C
Leeds Central , L , L
Leeds East , L , L
Leeds North East , L , L
Leeds North West , LD , LD
Leeds West , L , L
Leicester East , L , L
Leicester South , L , L
Leicester West , L , L
Leigh , L , L
Lewes , C , LD
Lewisham East , L , L
Lewisham West & Penge , L , L
Lewisham Deptford , L , L
Leyton & Wanstead , L , L
Lichfield , C , C
Lincoln , C , C
Liverpool Riverside , L , L
Liverpool Walton , L , L
Liverpool Wavertree , L , L
Liverpool West Derby , L , L
Loughborough , C , C
Louth & Horncastle , C , C
Ludlow , C , C
Luton North , L , L
Luton South , L , C
Macclesfield , C , C
Maidenhead , C , C
Maidstone & The Weald , C , C
Makerfield , L , L
Maldon , C , C
Manchester Central , L , L
Manchester Gorton , L , L
Manchester Withington , L , L
Mansfield , L , C
Meon Valley , C , C
Meriden , C , C
Bedfordshire Mid , C , C
Derbyshire Mid , C , C
Dorset Mid & Poole North , C , C
Norfolk Mid , C , C
Sussex Mid , C , C
Worcestershire Mid , C , C
Middlesbrough , L , L
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East , L , C
Milton Keynes North , C , C
Milton Keynes South , C , C
Mitcham & Morden , L , L
Mole Valley , C , C
Morecambe & Lunesdale , C , C
Morley & Outwood , C , C
New Forest East , C , C
New Forest West , C , C
Newark , C , C
Newbury , C , C
Newcastle Upon Tyne Central , L , L
Newcastle Upon Tyne East , L , L
Newcastle Upon Tyne North , L , L
Newcastle-Under-Lyme , L , C
Newton Abbot , C , C
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford , L , L
Cornwall North , C , C
Devon North , C , C
Dorset North , C , C
Durham North , L , L
Bedfordshire North East , C , C
Cambridgeshire North East , C , C
Derbyshire North East , L , C
Hampshire North East , C , C
Hertfordshire North East , C , C
Somerset North East , C , C
Herefordshire North , C , C
Norfolk North , LD , LD
Shropshire North , C , C
Somerset North , C , C
Swindon North , C , C
Thanet North , C , C
Tyneside North , L , L
Warwickshire North , C , C
Cambridgeshire North West , C , C
Durham North West , L , L
Hampshire North West , C , C
Leicestershire North West , C , C
Norfolk North West , C , C
Wiltshire North , C , C
Northampton North , C , C
Northampton South , C , C
Norwich North , C , C
Norwich South , L , L
Nottingham East , L , L
Nottingham North , L , L
Nottingham South , L , L
Nuneaton , C , C
Old Bexley & Sidcup , C , C
Oldham East & Saddleworth , L , C
Oldham West & Royton , L , L
Orpington , C , C
Oxford East , L , L
Oxford West & Abingdon , C , C
Pendle , C , C
Penistone & Stocksbridge , L , C
Penrith & The Border , C , C
Peterborough , C , C
Plymouth Moor View , C , C
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport , C , C
Poole , C , C
Poplar & Limehouse , L , L
Portsmouth North , C , C
Portsmouth South , C , C
Preston , L , L
Pudsey , C , C
Putney , C , C
Rayleigh & Wickford , C , C
Reading East , C , C
Reading West , C , C
Redcar , L , L
Redditch , C , C
Reigate , C , C
Ribble Valley , C , C
Richmond (Yorks) , C , C
Richmond Park , C , C
Rochdale , L , L
Rochester & Strood , C , C
Rochford & Southend East , C , C
Romford , C , C
Romsey & Southampton North , C , C
Rossendale & Darwen , C , C
Rother Valley , L , C
Rotherham , L , L
Rugby , C , C
Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner , C , C
Runnymede & Weybridge , C , C
Rushcliffe , C , C
Rutland & Melton , C , C
Saffron Walden , C , C
Salford & Eccles , L , L
Salisbury , C , C
Scarborough & Whitby , C , C
Scunthorpe , L , C
Sedgefield , L , C
Sefton Central , L , L
Selby & Ainsty , C , C
Sevenoaks , C , C
Sheffield Central , L , L
Sheffield South East , L , L
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough , L , L
Sheffield Hallam , LD , LD
Sheffield Heeley , L , L
Sherwood , C , C
Shipley , C , C
Shrewsbury & Atcham , C , C
Sittingbourne & Sheppey , C , C
Skipton & Ripon , C , C
Sleaford & North Hykeham , C , C
Slough , L , C
Solihull , C , C
Somerton & Frome , C , C
Basildon South & Thurrock East , C , C
Cambridgeshire South , C , C
Derbyshire South , C , C
Dorset South , C , C
Cambridgeshire South East , C , C
Cornwall South East , C , C
South Holland & The Deepings , C , C
Leicestershire South , C , C
Norfolk South , C , C
Northamptonshire South , C , C
South Ribble , C , C
South Shields , L , L
Staffordshire South , C , C
Suffolk South , C , C
Swindon South , C , C
Thanet South , C , C
Bedfordshire South West , C , C
Devon South West , C , C
Hertfordshire South West , C , C
Norfolk South West , C , C
Surrey South West , C , C
Wiltshire South West , C , C
Southampton Itchen , C , C
Southampton Test , L , C
Southend West , C , C
Southport , LD , LD
Spelthorne , C , C
St Albans , C , C
St Austell & Newquay , C , C
St Helens North , L , L
St Helens South & Whiston , L , L
St Ives , C , C
Stafford , C , C
Staffordshire Moorlands , C , C
Stalybridge & Hyde , L , C
Stevenage , C , C
Stockport , L , L
Stockton North , L , L
Stockton South , C , C
Stoke-On-Trent Central , L , C
Stoke-On-Trent North , L , C
Stoke-On-Trent South , L , C
Stone , C , C
Stourbridge , C , C
Stratford-On-Avon , C , C
Streatham , L , L
Stretford & Urmston , L , L
Stroud , C , C
Suffolk Coastal , C , C
Sunderland Central , L , L
Surrey Heath , C , C
Sutton & Cheam , C , C
Sutton Coldfield , C , C
Tamworth , C , C
Tatton , C , C
Taunton Deane , C , C
Telford , C , C
Tewkesbury , C , C
Cotswolds, The , C , C
Wrekin, The , C , C
Thirsk & Malton , C , C
Thornbury & Yate , C , C
Thurrock , C , C
Tiverton & Honiton , C , C
Tonbridge & Malling , C , C
Tooting , L , L
Torbay , C , C
Devon West & Torridge , C , C
Totnes , C , C
Tottenham , L , L
Truro & Falmouth , C , C
Tunbridge Wells , C , C
Twickenham , C , LD
Tynemouth , L , L
Uxbridge & Ruislip South , C , C
Vauxhall , L , L
Wakefield , L , C
Wallasey , L , L
Walsall North , L , C
Walsall South , L , C
Walthamstow , L , L
Wansbeck , L , L
Wantage , C , C
Warley , L , L
Warrington North , L , L
Warrington South , C , C
Warwick & Leamington , C , C
Washington & Sunderland West , L , L
Watford , C , C
Waveney , C , C
Wealden , C , C
Weaver Vale , C , C
Wellingborough , C , C
Wells , C , C
Welwyn Hatfield , C , C
Wentworth & Dearne , L , L
West Bromwich East , L , L
West Bromwich West , L , L
Dorset West , C , C
West Ham , L , L
Lancashire West , L , L
Suffolk West , C , C
Worcestershire West , C , C
Westminster North , L , C
Westmorland & Lonsdale , LD , LD
Weston-Super-Mare , C , C
Wigan , L , L
Wimbledon , C , C
Winchester , C , C
Windsor , C , C
Wirral South , L , C
Wirral West , L , C
Witham , C , C
Witney , C , C
Woking , C , C
Wokingham , C , C
Wolverhampton North East , L , C
Wolverhampton South East , L , L
Wolverhampton South West , L , C
Worcester , C , C
Workington , L , C
Worsley & Eccles South , L , C
Worthing West , C , C
Wycombe , C , C
Wyre & Preston North , C , C
Wyre Forest , C , C
Wythenshawe & Sale East , L , L
Yeovil , C , C
York Central , L , L
York Outer , C , C
Belfast East , DUP , DUP
Belfast North , DUP , DUP
Belfast South , SDLP , SDLP
Belfast West , SF , SF
Antrim East , DUP , DUP
Londonderry East , DUP , DUP
Fermanagh & South Tyrone , UUP , UUP
Foyle , SDLP , SDLP
Lagan Valley , DUP , DUP
Ulster Mid , SF , SF
Newry & Armagh , SF , SF
Antrim North , DUP , DUP
Down North , DUP , DUP
Antrim South , UUP , UUP
Down South , SDLP , SDLP
Strangford , DUP , DUP
Upper Bann , DUP , DUP
Tyrone West , SF , SF
Aberdeen North , SNP , SNP
Aberdeen South , SNP , SNP
Airdrie & Shotts , SNP , SNP
Angus , SNP , SNP
Argyll & Bute , SNP , SNP
Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock , SNP , SNP
Banff & Buchan , SNP , SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk , SNP , SNP
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross , SNP , SNP
Ayrshire Central , SNP , SNP
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill , SNP , SNP
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East , SNP , SNP
Dumfries & Galloway , SNP , SNP
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale , C , C
Dundee East , SNP , SNP
Dundee West , SNP , SNP
Dunfermline & Fife West , SNP , SNP
Dunbartonshire East , SNP , SNP
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow , SNP , SNP
East Lothian , SNP , SNP
Renfrewshire East , SNP , SNP
Edinburgh East , SNP , SNP
Edinburgh North & Leith , SNP , SNP
Edinburgh South , L , L
Edinburgh South West , SNP , SNP
Edinburgh West , SNP , SNP
Na H-Eileanan An Iar , SNP , SNP
Falkirk , SNP , SNP
Glasgow Central , SNP , SNP
Glasgow East , SNP , SNP
Glasgow North , SNP , SNP
Glasgow North East , SNP , SNP
Glasgow North West , SNP , SNP
Glasgow South , SNP , SNP
Glasgow South West , SNP , SNP
Glenrothes , SNP , SNP
Gordon , SNP , SNP
Inverclyde , SNP , SNP
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey , SNP , SNP
Kilmarnock & Loudoun , SNP , SNP
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath , SNP , SNP
Lanark & Hamilton East , SNP , SNP
Linlithgow & Falkirk East , SNP , SNP
Livingston , SNP , SNP
Midlothian , SNP , SNP
Moray , SNP , SNP
Motherwell & Wishaw , SNP , SNP
Ayrshire North & Arran , SNP , SNP
Fife North East , SNP , SNP
Ochil & Perthshire South , SNP , SNP
Orkney & Shetland , LD , LD
Paisley & Renfrewshire North , SNP , SNP
Paisley & Renfrewshire South , SNP , SNP
Perth & Perthshire North , SNP , SNP
Ross, Skye & Lochaber , SNP , SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West , SNP , SNP
Stirling , SNP , SNP
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine , SNP , SNP
Dunbartonshire West , SNP , SNP
Ynys Mon , L , C
Delyn , L , C
Alyn & Deeside , L , C
Wrexham , L , C
Llanelli , L , L
Gower , C , C
Swansea West , L , L
Swansea East , L , L
Aberavon , L , L
Cardiff Central , L , LD
Cardiff North , C , C
Rhondda , L , L
Torfaen , L , L
Monmouth , C , C
Newport East , L , C
Newport West , L , C
Arfon , PC , PC
Aberconwy , C , C
Clwyd West , C , C
Vale Of Clwyd , C , C
Dwyfor Meirionnydd , PC , PC
Clwyd South , L , C
Montgomeryshire , C , C
Ceredigion , LD , LD
Preseli Pembrokeshire , C , C
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South , C , C
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr , PC , PC
Brecon & Radnorshire , C , C
Neath , L , L
Cynon Valley , L , L
Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney , L , L
Blaenau Gwent , L , L
Bridgend , L , C
Ogmore , L , L
Pontypridd , L , L
Caerphilly , L , L
Islwyn , L , L
Vale Of Glamorgan , C , C
Cardiff West , L , L
Cardiff South & Penarth , L , L

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s